Gold's major trend restrained below 38.2% Fibos and 100-DMA, minor tend below 20-DMA - Stay short via Tunnel spread and far-month futures:
Steep slumps in gold -0.22% prices have been observed after the occurrence of railroad pattern at $1,294.75 levels, this bearish pattern hampered previous bullish momentum.
As a result, the current prices slide below DMAs, both leading & lagging oscillators signal more dips.
Every attempt of upswings is restrained below DMAs from last 1 week.
On a broader perspective, after 2-years of the consolidation phase, the major trend now seems to be exhausted again at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels with stern bearish swings. As the bulls failed to show the sustenance above this Fibonacci levels and 100-DMAs, the major downtrend likely to resume.
Well, in addition to that, the four Fed-related corrections so far this year averaged sell-offs of $28/oz, $58/oz, $76/oz and $84/oz each, with the current sell-off surpassing $50/oz so far. Considering the higher starting point, we believe the downside trade has room to play out further.
While further weakness in the broad dollar and re-escalation of political tensions could lend some support to bullion prices, we continue to caution against holding gold -0.22% as a political hedge during the global rate normalization cycle.
As you can observe that today’s gold -0.22% price rallies have been snapped by cautious bears in as soon as the price touches $1283.64 where it sees stiff resistance at 7DMA mark.
On intraday speculative grounds, contemplating above technical reasoning, we advise tunnel spreads which are binary versions of the debit put spreads.
At spot reference: $1,273, this strategy is likely to fetch leveraged yields than spot FX and certain yields keeping upper strikes at $1,283 (21DMA) and lower strikes at $1,267 levels.
Alternatively, shorts in CME -0.40% gold futures 0.14% for Dec’17 delivery have been encouraged at a price of $1,318/oz on September 20, 2017. We continue to uphold the position for the commensurate trade target upto $1,190/oz with a strict stop 1 at $1,294/oz and stop 2 at $1,306.
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