EUR/GBP hammer supports interim bulls, shooting stars develops bears in range-bounded trend – Trade and hedge via ratio spreads:
Technical chart and candlestick patterns: EURGBP bears have shown their bearish effects in a broader perspective after RSI’s bearish divergence as stated in our previous post.
While on 2H chart, the hammer has occurred at 0.8690 levels that evidences upswings at strong support of 0.8671 levels, bulls have now taken-off current prices above DMAs, but back-to-back shooting star patterns have occurred in previous trading sessions. These bearish patterns have signaled weakness. More rallies are likely only upon the sustenance above DMAs ahead of Euro area PMIs.
As both leading & lagging indicators signal intensified bullish momentum & uptrend continuation bulls have a little upper hand.
The cross has tested higher and failed at 0.8703 levels quite often, after the recent consolidation phase. However, 0.8715 (in near terms) and 0.8840/50 (in medium terms) are quite crucial which is holding as key pivotal resistance.
On a broader perspective, The major uptrend now goes in the range, while bulls attempt to spike further above EMAs but shooting stars & engulfing patterns, on this timeframe also, counter (refer monthly chart). For now, more slumps seem likely on RSI's divergence, above-stated bearish patterns and overbought momentum signaled by both RSI and stochastic on monthly plotting.
Trade tips: Contemplating above technical factors, we positioned for a modest albeit distinctly bounded relief rally in GBP amid prolonged Brexit dust in the UK parliament through a ratio put spread. Maintain a 2m 1x1.5 EUR put/GBP call spread, 0.88- 0.8650 with an 0.85 RKI on the lower strike. Expiry March 15, 2019. Paid 39bp in November. Marked at 2bp.
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly EUR spot index has flashed at -13 (which is mildly bearish ), while hourly GBP spot index has shown 93 ( bullish ) while articulating at 06:24 GMT .
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