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Gold whipsaw evidences slumps, more bearish rout on cards : FxWirePro | January 10, 2018



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Chart and candlestick pattern formed: Whipsaws pattern on intraday plotting that has evidenced price slumps below SMAs (4H chart) and failure swings at 78.6% Fibonacci retracements from the peaks of $1325.79 (refer weekly plotting).



For now, strong support is seen at $1,306.40 levels, a decisive breach below this strong support would most likely drag bearish rout.



Momentum study: Both RSI and stochastic curves converge downwards to signal the strength in bearish trend and intensified momentum on 4H chart. While on weekly terms also, overbought pressures are noticed.



Trend study: To substantiate the selling momentum indicated by the leading oscillators, both lagging indicators ( bearish SMA and MACD crossovers on intraday plotting) indicate the downtrend continuation in the days to come.



Well, for now, more slumps seem to be likely upon the confirmation from technical indicators as well as fundamental driving forces, such as a continuation of the global reflation trade into 2018 has sent the trade-weighted US Dollar 0.03% lower and led to further flattening of the US Treasury yield curve, boosting gold -0.24% higher following the December FOMC meeting and rate hike.



Hence, contemplating above bearish environment coupled by the momentum oscillators, it is wise to buy one touch binary put options strategy, the strategy is likely to fetch leveraged yields as long as underlying spot FX keeps dipping southward on or before the binary expiry duration.



Initially, we added shorts in CME gold -0.24% of Dec’17 tenors at a price of $1,318/oz. Rolled on to Feb’18 tenors embedding the roll gains into our entry level which increases to $1,321.20/oz.



Trade target is $1,190/oz with a stop at $1,384/oz. Marked to market on January 4, 2018, at $1,316.50/oz for a gain of $4.70/oz or 0.4%.



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